Just starting Sunday and I’m already put with a decision
Reads: Opponent is 24/15 through 70 hands.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3426414
I knew it was going to be a tough spot as the action started to fold around to me. My stack is awkward and I raise and have no idea what to do against his shove. I asked Adil and he said maybe call; I asked Chris and he said easy fold, as we’re dominated too easily by overpairs. Something about this didn’t seem right and I went to the math.
I put his restealing range here on any pair, A5+ and any broadway card. I used this range as this is probably what I’m shoving here with and I’m sure his range is even wider than my own given my read. So, using that range I checked out what my equity was in Poker Stove.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.016% 46.46% 00.55% 1494129588 17755890.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 52.984% 52.43% 00.55% 1686065544 17755890.00 { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A5o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Given that I was getting 3:2 on my money this is actually a fairly easy call. I was very close to calling myself but I had the same fears that Chris did, its just that he has way more combinations of over cards as he does pairs.
In conclusion: we should not raise/fold a pair here no matter how low. Adil mentioned that if we wanted to avoid a tough spot like this an open shove is +EV, which is true if you’re using ICM even this deep. I think raise/calling is more +EV though with a pair. What else can we call here?
We should be calling anything that has over 40% equity vs his range: A8o+ (although A6-A7 is fairly breakeven), KJ+ (KTo is breakeven), KTs+ (K9s is breakeven), QJs (QJo and QTs is breakeven). This is all against someone with a 25 % resteal range.
