JeffreyLipsey.com

Well, I managed to pull through in the Denver game for a nice 1 unit profit. I was in serious doubts there at half time that Denver was going to lose, as their defense is so bad it was annoying. Somehow they pulled through though…


I’ve got two teasers going tomorrow, they’re only 6 point this week and not 7 points so I should save 20 % of my bet. I’m going with Jacksonville -.5 vs Detroit AND Carolina -3.5 vs Oakland. I don’t see how Detroit or Oakland has a chance of winning this week so that is why I picked these teams.


My 2nd teaser is with Giants +9 vs Philadelphia AND the Jets -3 vs St. Louis. I’m fairly confident that the Giants/Eagles game will be a close one, let alone I think the Giants will win. The fact that I can get 9 points is even better.


I didn’t think any of the other bets looked all that great to me so I decided to not make anymore for this week.

So far, I found one line that I liked and its for this Thursday’s game between Denver and the Browns. I was able to get Denver +3 vs the struggling browns at a breakeven price. This is a bit surprising to me and I expect the line to move as more digest the news that Brady Quinn is starting at quarterback.


I don’t think the line moved at all since the news came out last night that the starting quarterback got canned, although I disagree with that move. Right now they have Cleveland as the favorite by 3 points, but because they’re playing at home its practically break even as 3 points usually goes to the home team regardless.


Other bets I might place this week will include teasers against the Raiders, Rams and Lions and for the Jets, Giants and maybe colts/pats/bills but I haven’t decided yet. I probably wont place any bets until after Thursday, I want to keep some money on Player’s Only so that I can play some poker there this week.

So this post is going to make me sound like a degenerate gambler, so. . . yay!


A couple years ago I had a lot of success betting football and I stopped after legislation curbed how to get money on and off the sports betting sites. But I was able to get money on Player’s Only so I’m using their sports book and poker room for the rest of the season and we’ll see how it goes after that.


My bets this last Sunday were all teasers and although I had some good lines it didn’t work out. The one that I won was I had the Giants -2 AND the Over 34 vs the Cowboys, which was just destroyed. But I lost two others. The first being the Bears -5.5 AND the over 36.5 vs the Lions. The original line had the bears -12.5 but I knew there wasn’t a chance in hell they’d cover that spread, even though I figured they would win the game. I was right, but they only won by 3 points and not 5.5 so I lost that bet, even though the over was covered. My final bet was on the Sunday night game with the Colts +1 AND Over 37 vs the Patriots. I again guess it right that the Colts were going to win but they only scored 34 points combined. I was close. . . again.


Sunday didn’t turn out too well, my teaser on Monday Night’s game was just as much a loser. I had the Redskins +5 AND Over 29.5 vs the Steelers. For some reason the Redskins were the favorite by 2 points, I figured they would score more but I didn’t expect the ass whooping. Luckily for me I received a free $50 bet on my deposit so I put that on the Steelers Moneyline for +120, which was by far an excellent price, so that hedged my loss from the teaser. I actually had a chance to win both bets: if the Steelers won by 4 or less and they scored 30 points or more, but that didn’t happen.


Overall I finished down 1.5 bets, but I could have saved 4/5 of a bet had I chosen better lines. My teasers were the 7 point variety, which cost a full $20 more/$100 bet than the 6 point variety. The % chance of success doesn’t change that much off that one point to account for an additional 20% risk per bet, and that was a mistake I wont be making again.