JeffreyLipsey.com

Before I start let me give a background. Jim Cramer recommends that you number your positions from 1 to 4, with 1 being a stock you want to buy right now and 4 being a stock you want to sell right now. 2 is a stock you want to buy more of if it falls 5-7 percent in price and 3 is a stock you want to sell if it increases 5-7 percent in price.


It’s been 6 weeks since I last did one of these and that is definitely too long. I don’t know where the time has gone but now is as good of time as any. I feel like I’ve shunned my portfolio the last 3 weeks as it was tanking with market. I still don’t think the market has bottomed even though it rebounded this last week so I don’t know what is on my buy list right now.


The 4’s


None. Is this a good thing? I don’t know exactly but I don’t really feel like selling anything when my entire portfolio is down. Especially when I have confidence that my stocks will go up.


The 3’s


FRO: Frontline


Of all the stocks that I own, I feel that Frontline is the one that I put more of my faith in Jim Cramer and the shipping industry itself than any of my other stocks. Granted, I have pretty large confidence that this stock will go up another 10-15 %, back up to its 52 week high of $72/share from only a couple weeks ago. Until then I have a fallback because of the dividend that they already paid me so I can wait. I’m going to be selling FRO once it gets back up to $72/share and look for something better, or wait for FRO to go back down.


The 2’s


EP: El Paso Oil and NBR: Nabors Resources


I’m placing EP and NBR in the same boat because I believe they belong together. They effectively share my oil risk and tend to move up and down together. I really don’t want to buy any more of these as I think I have enough exposure to this market as it is, but if I can get more on a steal then I definitely will.


CMCO: Columbus McKinnon


CMCO is one my small cap stock, and in that there is some inherit risk involved; ot has a market cap of under $500 Million. It is trading at its 52 week low and has great growth prospects and a nice balance sheet with PE ratio of under 12. The only thing missing is a dividend, but I don’t expect it to pay one for quite some time as it is small cap. Of all my stocks, CMCO is the one I keep up with the least and haven’t cared much since its been down. This might be a problem but I still like the financials and growth for this company. This stock is definitely one of my longest term holds that I have and I think if it continues to go down it becomes more attractive to buy.


The 1’s


MMM: 3M Technologies


MMM is so down right now that it has no where to go but up. It has a nice dividend yield (close to 3% right now) and its trading at its 52 week low. If only I had the free cash to purchase some more of this stock as I think it is going to go up after it releases earnings July 24th.


MTW: Manitowac


I’ve saved MTW for last for a reason, because I feel this one is going to be my big winner. Maybe not right now but with the massive hit it has taken in the past couple weeks it really is a great buy. If I had extra cash to purchase anything right now, I’d keep buying this stock. I’m going to keep an eye as they release earnings in a week too.




Well, those are my stocks, this next week will be key for me as several of my companies will be releasing earnings. The results of those earnings may affect my decisions above but for now I’m still pretty bullish on several of my stocks.

So in the last 2-3 weeks my stocks have gone down the drain. Well, the main difference is the fact that my once large gains with EP and NBR have dropped considerable, and FRO continues to be as high variance as ever. The others haven’t really changed much, although since I last wrote a summary I have since purchased more MTW at $30 a share and it then dropped another 15% from that point.


I don’t think my stocks are all that bad really, the market itself was down just as much as my portfolio, whether or not I’d have sold my gains is another story.


Basis: $11686.29



+ $141 Gain from ESV Sale


+ $110 Dividend from FRO


+ $20 Cash


Total Account Value: $10912.20


Net Loss: -$774.09


I told you guys I had a huge downswing lol. I went from + $800 to -$1000 in 3 weeks, a net change of over 15%. And I’m diversified! I do have the ability to buy more stocks on margin if I think the market will get better (and I do). I’ll have to do a recap too to actually see if I do want to buy any more of my positions.

Okay, so I was doing some quotes online last night for the best/cheapest moving truck; I’m basically looking for a 16ft Truck with a pick up on Saturday and drop off on Wednesday. I also would like to see how much more/less it would cost me to tow the car instead of drive, as well as rent a hand truck to help move. I looked at the three most common companies: Penske, Budget, and U Haul.


Penske: $665 Base Rate + $20 for Hand truck, can take an extra day and drop off Thursday for Same Price, To tow car its $350 extra…


Budget: $869 for same time period +$30 for Hand truck, its $106 more to tow the car with two wheels off ground, $212 to tow with 4 wheels


U Haul: $782 for 5 days (drop off thursday), +$10 for Hand truck, t$111 to tow with two wheels off ground, $224 to tow with 4 wheels


Total costs:


Penske: $685 without Towing, $1035 with Towing
Budget: $899 without Towing, $1005/$1111 with Towing
U Haul: $792 without Towing, $893/$1006 with Towing


So, the cheapest will be Penske without Towing but U Haul with towing, $685 compared to $893; with a difference in price of $208. My car can get 30 mpg (at least, depends on the speed), at $4.20/gallon and the trip is around 720 Miles; the estimated extra fuel cost of driving my car instead of towing it is at least $100. It doesn’t really make all that much sense to me, as you would think the cost of renting a car tow would be less than the tanks of fuel it would cost me to drive myself. Otherwise what’s the point? It looks like I need to register a truck at Penske.

I think not towing is the cheapest option here saving more than $100 in the long run.

I got to my Dad’s right at 12:30 or so and chugged a beer probably within my first 30 minutes here; I didn’t waste any time. My dad was replacing some siding on the house and even though he has air conditioning on in his house, I was still sweating by the time I finished my beer.


I pretty much ditched the idea to go fishing given I was already so hot and the river was pretty high. Instead I spent the entire afternoon in my Dad’s swimming pool/hot tub (when its not heated it doubles as nifty little pool), and drinking beer. I don’t usually drink a whole lot of beer and by that I mean frequency. When I do though I usually make up for it volume.


I don’t know how much I’ve had to drink but I’ve switched to water now for a few hours. My dad started to warm up the water from 80 degrees to 95 and finally 102 degrees until we both thought it was too warm and we went in to watch the White Sox on TV. I think I fell sleep for a while there as I don’t remember my dad ever getting out of the hot tub but apparently he did lol.


Tomorrow’s plans are still unclear right now but it might depend on the weather. I’m sure it will have something to do with drinking beer though.

I’m up the earliest in quite some time, probably since before I went to Vegas. I only got 6 hours of sleep last night and I’m pretty tired as I just couldn’t get to bed when I wanted to.


I do some side work for FTR on the side, as I convert some of their videos to Flash. The latest video made by Redzilla was just awkward, now that I work with Grinderschool and I know what’s quality and what isn’t. I swear to god, the first line he says on video “I hope this shit fucking works.” I was pretty disappointed and I hope Xianti doesn’t use the video but it is his site so he can do what he wants.


I’m almost ready to head to my dad’s place, I just need to do the dishes and maybe give him a call and see if he wants any of my food. Oh well, my next post will be from his place and I’ll be keeping everyone up to date on whatever it is I am or am not doing.